Invest Lobby

Technical Analysis of Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO)
as at 27/05/2011

25 May 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's May 1-25 palm oil exports rose 17% compared with the same period a month earlier, to 1.10 million metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.

Another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, earlier estimated exports for the same period at 1.07 million tons, up 23% on month.


24 May 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rebounded Tuesday as investors covered shorts on expectations that demand may rise further.

However, lingering euro-zone debt concerns and a healthy rise in palm oil output so far this month capped advances.

Benchmark August CPO on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 0.7% higher at MYR3,380 a metric ton.

July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 0.7% at 57.60 cents a pound by the end of trade on BMD.

"Overall May exports should reach 1.35 million tons, as Malaysia is probably shipping at least 30,000 tons of palm products daily," said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur.

Traders and shippers estimated that exports for the May 1-25 period may rise 12%-24% from a month ago to 1.06 million-1.07 million tons.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. are due to issue May 1-25 export estimates Wednesday.

Palm oil has declined 15% from a three-year high of MYR3,967/ton hit Feb. 10 and will likely trade in a range as strong export demand offsets improving production.

"Rising production will cap advances for the rest of the month. I expect prices to trade in a MYR3,200-MYR3,400/ton range," said an analyst at a Singapore-based investment bank.

Planters estimate May palm oil output will reach 1.80 million tons, compared with 1.53 million tons in April.

Palm olein for August, September was traded at $1,172.50/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, another Singapore-based physical market broker said.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR10 higher at MYR3,450/ton.

Trading volume on the BMD was lower at 18,689 lots, compared with 28,940 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

Open interest reached 102,443 lots, compared with 102,471 lots Monday.


16 May 2011: SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's May 1-15 palm oil exports rose 33% from a month earlier to 601,984 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.

The figure is much higher than market expectations of shipments around 500,000-520,000 tons.

Earlier Monday, surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated May 1-15 palm oil exports at 533,419 tons, up 28% on month.

15 May 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose Friday, tracking broad-based buying in commodity markets amid hopes for higher exports in the first 15 days of May.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 1.5% higher at MYR3,274 a metric ton, after rising as much as 2% to MYR3,292/ton, the highest level since May 3.

Traders and shippers expect palm oil exports for the May 1-15 period to reach 500,000-520,000 tons, an increase of 11%-25% from the first 15 days of the previous month.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. estimated April 1-15 shipments at 418,134 tons and 452,038 tons, respectively. Both are scheduled to issue outbound sales for the May 1-15 period on Monday.

Stronger export demand will help to offset rising palm oil production, slowing the build-up of stocks in Malaysia, the world''s second-largest producer after Indonesia, and supporting prices, a trading executive at a foreign trading house in Jakarta said.

July soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade had risen 0.5% to 56.77 cents a pound in screen trade as of 1028 GMT.

Advances in palm oil were limited by concerns that nearby palm oil demand may weaken as crude soyoil from Brazil and Argentina is now offered at par or at a slight discount of $3/ton to refined palm olein, following a recent fall in soyoil and soybean futures, physical market brokers in Singapore and Malaysia said.

The market tracks the relative prices of the two competing vegetable oils because price-sensitive buyers tend to switch away from palm oil if it trades at a premium to soyoil.

In other palm oil markets, rupiah-denominated July palm oil on the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange was 1.6% higher at IDR9,495/ton at 1033 GMT.

CME Group''s dollar-denominated palm oil contract was up $12.25 at $1,087.75/ton at 1034 GMT.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR30 higher at MYR3,380/ton.

Traded volume on the BMD reached 29,674 lots compared with 25,252 lots Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

Open interest reached 112,960 lots, compared with 112,976 lots Thursday.


10 May 2011:KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of May fell 1% from a month earlier to 323,664 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.

SGS estimated exports at 327,062 tons during the April 1-10 period.

Earlier in the day, Intertek Agri Services said May 1-10 exports totaled 323,655 tons.


10 May 2011: DJ Malaysia's April Palm Oil Exports 1.33 Mln Tons, up 7.8% on-month. End-April Palm Oil Stocks 1.67 Mln Tons, up 3.5% on-month. April Crude Palm Oil Output 1.53 Mln Tons - MPOB

10 May 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of May fell 1% from a month earlier to 323,664 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.

SGS estimated exports at 327,062 tons during the April 1-10 period.

Earlier in the day, Intertek Agri Services said May 1-10 exports totaled 323,655 tons, up 17% on-month.


12 April 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Sharply higher crude palm oil production in Indonesia even as India's palm oil imports decline may combine to push palm oil prices below MYR3,000 a metric ton in the next few months, leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said Tuesday.

Mistry revised up his forecast for this year's palm oil production in Indonesia, the world's largest producer, to 25 million tons from an earlier forecast of 24 million tons given that "the velocity of CPO production in Indonesia is much better than I had expected."

"Given the larger palm oil production forecast. I expect the MYR3,000 support to be penetrated and prices could go even lower," Mistry, who is also director at Godrej International Ltd. told an industry conference in Beijing.

Benchmark June crude palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives settled at MYR3,417/ton Monday, up MYR18, or 0.5%.

Meanwhile, a seasonal rise in Malaysian output has kicked in earlier than expected, boosting global incremental supply in 2011 by 6 million-6.5 million tons, the first time in two years that supply growth will exceed demand growth, he said. Mistry pegged total incremental demand to rise by 5.5 million tons this year.

He didn't elaborate the extent of Malaysia''s production increase, although Monday's key production data from the government-backed Malaysian Palm Oil Board point to a sharp rise in overall output this year.

The MPOB estimated a 29% increase in March palm oil production to 1.42 million tons, while end-month stocks reached 1.61 million tons, its highest level since December.

India's imports of soyoil and palm oil may fall in the next few months as domestic rapeseed crop production was better than expected, making local oils cheaper than palm oil imports.

Palm oil may regain its price advantage against locally produced oils in India by around end-May--unless palm oil prices fall to MYR3,000/ton before then, Mistry said.

Soyoil prices from South America will likely continue to trade at a $200 premium over palm oil until August, he added.

"After August or whenever soyoil usage in U.S. biodiesel production is substantially raised, we shall see [palm] prices rally and [begin] their journey towards MYR4,000/ton," he said.


11 April 2011: Malaysia's March Palm Oil Exports Up 11% On Month to 1.23 million tons - MPOB


11 April 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of April fell 8% from a month earlier, to 327,062 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.

SGS estimated exports at 355,485 tons during the March 1-10 period.

Earlier in the day, Intertek Agri Services said March 1-10 exports totaled 277,698 tons, down 21%.


11 April 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's March crude palm oil output rose 29% compared with February to 1.42 million metric tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Monday.

In its monthly report, MPOB said palm oil stocks reached 1.61 million tons at the end of March, up 9%.

The rise in inventory levels matched the 1.60 million-1.65 million tons level expected by traders and planters in a poll by Dow Jones Newswires.

Palm oil exports rose 11% to 1.23 million tons in March, MPOB said.


11 April 2011: BEIJING (Dow Jones)- China may import 53 million-54 million tons of soybeans this marketing year, slightly lower than the 54.5 million-54.8 million tons previously forecast, an official with state grain trader Cofoco Ltd. said Monday.

Imports will be lower in the year ending Sept. 30 as most domestic crushers are operating at around 40% of their processing capacity amid tight operating margins, Cofco's manager for oils and oilseeds information, Liu Ni, said at the China International Edible Oils & Oilseeds Conference.

Liu said the country currently has total soybean crushing capacity of 110 million tons a year. Most importers have suspended imports of distillers' dried grains--a type of feed product--since March, following an anti-dumping probe initiated by Chinese authorities, Liu said.

China's palm oil imports will also be slightly lower at 6.2 million tons, compared with 6.4 million-6.5 million tons forecast earlier, she said.

This is despite domestic rapeseed output likely falling by about 15% to below 9 million tons this year, she said.


7 April 2011: [Dow Jones] BMD CPO futures retreat as estimates by planters show a 28% jump in March output to 1.40 million tons; "the figures are very high," a trading manager at a Singapore-based agribusiness firm says; "if production improves further, stockpiles could easily move up to 2.5 million tons." Prices may test support at MYR3,250/ton. More cues should come Monday when industry regulator MPOB is due to issue March production, stock and export data.


31 March 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia''s palm oil exports rose 2.3% in March from the previous month to 1.12 million metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Thursday.

SGS estimated exports at 1.09 million tons in February.

Earlier in the day, another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, said March exports fell 0.5% to 1.11 million tons.


21 March 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's palm oil exports during the March 1-20 period fell 9.5% from the same period last month to 734,897 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.

SGS estimated exports at 811,813 tons during the Feb. 1-20 period.

Another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, estimated March 1-20 exports at 719,302 tons earlier in the day, down 13% on month.


21 March 2011: (Dow Jones) China February Palm Oil Imports 332,495 Tons, Down 16% On Year


10 March 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- Malaysia's February crude palm oil output rose 3.5% compared with January to 1.09 million metric tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Friday.

In its monthly report, MPOB said palm oil exports fell 8.5% to 1.11 million tons in February. Palm oil stocks totaled 1.48 million tons at the end of February, up 4.2% on month.

The following are details of the February crop data and revised numbers for January, issued by MPOB:

February January Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,094,473 1,057,961 Up 3.45%
Palm Oil Exports 1,114,202 1,218,167 Down 8.53%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 76,278 64,251 Up 18.7%
Palm Oil Imports 189,411 164,938 Up 14.8%
Closing Stocks 1,478,793 1,418,663 Up 4.24%
Crude Palm Oil 785,356 625,294 Up 25.6%
Processed Palm Oil 693,437 793,369 Down 12.6%

Malaysia's End-Feb Palm Oil Stocks Up 4.2% On Month at 1.48m tons - MPOB


7 March 2011: KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)- The palm oil production of PT Bakrie Sumatra Plantations may rise by 30% for the calendar year 2011 as weather improves and as more palm trees reach maturity and produce more palm fruits, a company executive said Monday.

The company also plans to expand by an additional 15,000 hectares, "through greenfield or brownfield acquisitions," Howard Sargeant, chief executive, palm plantations division, of the Jakarta-based company said in an interview on the sidelines of the Bursa Malaysia annual palm oil conference.

The company''s total planted area for oil palm cultivation is around 110,000 hectares, with the bulk of its estates in the island of Sumatra, while the rest is in Central Kalimantan.

The company produced around 230,000 metric tons of palm oil last year.

The prospects for improving weather and palm oil''s output growth to gain traction for the rest of the year will place pressure on prices, Sargeant said. "CPO prices will be going south in the second half. But for now until June, prices may hover in the MYR3,500-MYR3,600/ton range, supported by high energy prices due to escalating tension (in the Middle East and North Africa)."


4 March 2011: DOW JONES NEWSWIRES - Indonesia's palm oil exports in January fell 15% compared with the previous month to 1.37 million tons, Indonesian Palm Oil Association, or Gapki, said in a statement Friday.

Exports of crude palm oil products from the world''s biggest producing country fell 14% to 846,032 tons due to lower outbound sales to India and the European Union.

Shipments to India reached 369,989 tons, a decline of 27% from December, while exports to Europe fell 12% to 181,666 tons, Gapki said.